The prospect of a second Trump presidency is creating ripples of uncertainty across the climate technology landscape. Known for motto like “Drill, baby, drill” or calling climate issues all part of a “hoax” , a Trump return to the White House could reshape clean energy funding worldwide, forcing investors, nations, and startups to adapt. The potential consequences extend well beyond U.S. borders, impacting global geopolitics and climate innovation, particularly in Southeast Asia (SEA). Here's a closer look at what may lie ahead under Trump 2.0
For SEA: One less partner and one less competitor
Southeast Asia’s clean energy initiatives could face major funding challenges if Trump follows through on promises to cut climate spending and focus on domestic industries. The U.S. is currently a key partner in the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) programs with Indonesia and Vietnam, designed to help these countries shift away from coal and adopt cleaner energy sources. However, a Trump presidency could see the U.S. disengage from these efforts, part of what experts call a likely “repeat of rollbacks and repeals.”
Such a move could significantly reduce pledged funds. The U.S. has committed $2 billion of the $20 billion pledged to Indonesia by wealthy nations and financiers, and $1 billion of the $15.5 billion allocated for Vietnam. A full withdrawal would leave these JETP programs struggling for resources—at a time when funds are already slow to materialize.
That said, an immediate shock is unlikely. The U.S. government isn’t a major direct funder of Southeast Asia’s energy transition. According to Joshua Crabb, head of Asia-Pacific equities at Robeco, bilateral U.S. funds for clean energy in the region totaled just $41 million between 2018 and 2022—2% of total financing from wealthy nations during that period. By comparison, Germany provided $1.4 billion, making it the top contributor. Much of the U.S. contribution comes indirectly, through multilateral lenders.
Still, a second Trump presidency risks ceding U.S. leadership in climate technology to China, a nation already expanding its influence in Southeast Asia’s energy sector. For Southeast Asian economies, which are grappling with both the impacts of climate change and shifting geopolitical dynamics, this presents a unique challenge and opportunity. Without strong U.S. involvement, these countries will have fewer bidders for the best climate technologies. At the same time, it may push them to develop stronger regional momentum and attract investment from other global players to fill the gap.
On the demand side, it is clear that technologies that solve real and existing world issues, coupled with being cleaner for the planet will continue to grow strong. But whether Southeast Asia can seize this moment to advance its clean energy goals and thrive sustainably will depend on how effectively it navigates the shifting global landscape. Opportunity favors those who adapt.
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